- Exports in January were 8,288 tons, compared to 7,836 tons last year, an increase of 6%
- Exports year to date are 57,887 tons compared to 59,363 tons last year, an decrease of 2.4%
- Average export price for whole apricots for February was $2,745/ton FOB compared to $3109 last year.
Steady export numbers again. We believe that the crop will be exported in its entirety. Prices increased 5 to 8% during early January due to short covering by packers who are faced with dwindling supply.
We go into the bloom period with very little supply and we believe the majority of packers are still running short positions forced on them by tightened credit lines.
The winter has been moderately cold, with good snow last week, the trees remain dormant, and an early bloom is not currently expected though weather is forecast to warm up later this week and through to the end of February.
The lira has stabilized and has been trading for the past 3 months in a relatively tight range between 5.20 and 5.40 to the $, it is currently at 5.29.
With prices still well below 5 and 10 year averages, down side risks are minimal. On the other hand, any adverse weather over the coming 2 months would cause a sharp rise in prices given the tight supply situation. Any buyers not covered through new crop in late August are recommended to cover at this time.